Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and again against Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, bent right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
